Is BYU on the verge of a truly special season, one that could rewrite their football legacy? The answer might be closer than you think, hinging on a crucial rivalry game and some very optimistic projections! Let's dive into what the experts are saying about BYU's chances this year, and what it all means for Cougar fans everywhere.
Fresh off a thrilling double-overtime victory against Arizona, BYU is gearing up for a highly anticipated showdown against their arch-rival, the University of Utah. This isn't just another game; it's a battle for bragging rights and, more importantly, a contest with significant implications for the Big 12 conference title race. A victory would mark the first time since the early 1990s that BYU has secured three consecutive wins against the Utes, adding extra fuel to an already fiery rivalry. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), a predictive tool that analyzes team strength and game outcomes, has weighed in with its forecast for the BYU-Utah clash and updated BYU's projected win total for the entire 2025 season.
According to ESPN's FPI, expect a nail-biter. The FPI currently gives BYU a 51.0% chance of defeating the Utes on their home turf in Provo. This razor-thin margin suggests a closely contested game that could go down to the wire. But here's where it gets controversial... some analysts argue that FPI doesn't fully account for the emotional intensity and unpredictable nature of rivalry games, potentially underestimating the impact of home-field advantage for BYU.
Before the season even kicked off, FPI projected BYU to win approximately 8.5 games. But following their performance thus far, FPI has revised its projection upwards, now estimating BYU will finish with a record of 9.6-2.4. That's right, nearly ten wins! Looking at the game-by-game predictions, BYU is favored to win every remaining contest except for their matchup against Texas Tech, according to FPI. And this is the part most people miss... these projections are based on probabilities, not guarantees. Upsets happen, and injuries can derail even the most promising seasons.
Now, let's talk about "special seasons." For the sake of this discussion, we'll define a special season as achieving 10 or more regular-season victories. Reaching that milestone would not only position BYU as a strong contender for the Big 12 championship but could also potentially earn them a coveted spot in the College Football Playoff – the ultimate goal for any college football program. FPI currently gives BYU a 54.9% chance of winning 10 or more games, a significant jump from the 45.2% chance they were given just last week. Furthermore, there's a 3.8% chance that BYU could run the table and finish the season undefeated. Imagine that!
Here's a breakdown of BYU's chances of reaching various win totals, according to FPI:
- 7 wins or more: 99.8%
- 8 wins or more: 97.0%
- 9 wins or more: 84.0%
- 10 wins or more: 54.9%
- 11 wins or more: 22.0%
- 12 wins (undefeated): 3.8%
Following their hard-fought victory against Arizona, BYU climbed one spot to number 19 in the FPI rankings. However, they are no longer the highest-ranked Big 12 team. Utah overtook BYU after a commanding win against Arizona State. Texas Tech has also surged in the rankings, landing in the top 10 after a decisive victory over Kansas.
Currently, BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech are the only Big 12 teams that hold a position within the top 30 of the FPI rankings. This highlights the perceived strength of these programs relative to the rest of the conference.
When it comes to conference title aspirations, Texas Tech is currently considered the front-runner, according to FPI. The Red Raiders also benefit from a favorable conference schedule for the remainder of the season. BYU is currently ranked second in line behind Texas Tech in terms of conference title chances. Here's a look at the teams with the best odds of winning the Big 12, according to FPI:
BYU and Texas Tech are the only two teams with greater than a 15% chance of winning the conference, and only four teams in the league have better than a 5% chance to win the conference. This indicates that FPI sees a relatively small group of contenders emerging in the Big 12 this season.
According to FPI, BYU has a 30.0% chance of making it to the College Football Playoff. This represents the second-best odds within the conference. Here's a glimpse at the Big 12 teams with the highest chances of securing a spot in the College Football Playoff, according to FPI:
So, what do you think? Are these FPI projections realistic, or are they overlooking key factors that could impact BYU's season? Do you believe BYU has a legitimate shot at winning the Big 12 and making the College Football Playoff? And what about that rivalry game – does FPI's prediction of a close contest accurately reflect the intensity we can expect to see on the field? Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments below!
